Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2084 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2084 IAD 08:32 → JAX 10:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest G4 383 IAD 18:46 → JAX 20:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2084 United Flight history →	IAD 08:32	JAX 10:42	12%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 293 United Flight history →	IAD 17:53	JAX 20:08	19%	8%	0.9%	76%
G4 383 Allegiant	IAD 18:46	JAX 20:50	32%	13%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON