Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5809 IAD 12:18 → JFK 13:38 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5835 IAD 12:29 → JFK 13:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5809 Republic	IAD 12:18	JFK 13:38	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 5835 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:29	JFK 13:55	26%	6%	0.7%	42%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 19:14	JFK 21:00	36%	22%	12.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON