Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1323 at 09:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1323 IAD 09:06 → LAS 11:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4277 IAD 06:02 → LAS 08:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1323 United Flight history →	IAD 09:06	LAS 11:16	9%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 2156 United Flight history →	IAD 13:00	LAS 15:09	11%	5%	0.6%	91%
UA 2209 United	IAD 18:09	LAS 20:20	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1764 United Flight history →	IAD 20:10	LAS 22:19	16%	6%	0.6%	77%
F9 4277 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 06:02	LAS 08:24	20%	9%	0.8%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031	1h 24m Denver	DEN 09:46 → LAS 10:52UA 1767	7h 22m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 31m	93%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	7h 35m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON