Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2011 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2011 IAD 06:55 → LAX 09:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2276 IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:21 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2011 United	IAD 06:55	LAX 09:24	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 325 United Flight history →	IAD 07:00	LAX 09:26	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1868 United Flight history →	IAD 09:10	LAX 11:39	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 657 United	IAD 09:34	LAX 12:11	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	12%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	LAX 10:47	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 1225 American Flight history →	IAD 06:20	LAX 08:54	15%	4%	0.5%	87%
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	16%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 1385 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	LAX 00:57	18%	5%	0.7%	84%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	23%	6%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031	1h 40m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	8h 04m	100%	86%
United Details →	IAD 12:45 → CLE 14:06UA 1709	1h 36m Cleveland	CLE 15:42 → LAX 17:38UA 679	7h 53m	95%	85%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	1h 14m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	8h 00m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON