Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: UA 379 at 08:45, 12%.

Safest bet that day UA 379 IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1101 IAD 15:37 → MCO 17:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 379 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MCO 11:08	12%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2206 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	MCO 14:58	16%	6%	0.9%	86%
F9 4355 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 11:15	MCO 13:57	19%	10%	1.2%	68%
UA 2463 United Flight history →	IAD 17:22	MCO 19:45	31%	14%	1.0%	71%
UA 1101 United Flight history →	IAD 15:37	MCO 17:59	33%	13%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON