Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today G7 4440 IAD 12:50 → MHT 14:09 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4431 IAD 17:16 → MHT 18:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4440 GoJet	IAD 12:50	MHT 14:09	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
G7 4472 GoJet	IAD 22:19	MHT 23:58	22%	8%	1.3%	no record
G7 4431 GoJet	IAD 17:16	MHT 18:55	28%	11%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON