Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 3649 IAD 08:45 → MSP 10:36 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 3783 IAD 18:46 → MSP 20:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3649 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MSP 10:36	10%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 2604 United	IAD 08:40	MSP 10:25	11%	6%	0.4%	no record
DL 3996 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAD 06:00	MSP 07:53	13%	11%	0.6%	91%
UA 3576 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 13:20	MSP 15:11	14%	3%	0.5%	76%
DL 3699 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAD 11:35	MSP 13:35	16%	9%	0.4%	87%
DL 3783 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAD 18:46	MSP 20:56	19%	6%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON