Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2253 IAD 08:40 → MSY 10:24 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2042 IAD 20:02 → MSY 21:49 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2253 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	MSY 10:24	12%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 251 United Flight history →	IAD 18:09	MSY 20:03	15%	5%	1.0%	86%
UA 2042 United Flight history →	IAD 20:02	MSY 21:49	18%	6%	1.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON