Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:48 pm at Dulles); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 15:25, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAD 15:25 → DFW 17:17AA 524	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:28 → MYR 23:16AA 4019 · flown by Envoy	7h 51m	85%	67%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	6h 09m	92%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 19:26 → ATL 21:26DL 2902	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	4h 29m	73%	51%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	55m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	4h 05m	61%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON