Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 IAD 08:30 → ORF 09:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2677 IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2112 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	ORF 09:39	8%	4%	0.8%	96%
UA 2677 United Flight history →	IAD 22:35	ORF 23:44	13%	6%	0.7%	75%
UA 6313 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 13:05	ORF 14:17	8%	5%	0.0%	92%
UA 4308 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:45	ORF 18:59	35%	13%	4.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON