tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:27, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching West Palm Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → PBI 15:50DL 838 7h 23m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:29 → JFK 13:55DL 5835 · flown by Republic 1h 50m New York JFK 15:45 → PBI 19:04DL 1638 6h 35m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 14m Chicago ORD 10:50 → PBI 14:51UA 2342 6h 36m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:03 → PBI 12:54DL 1190 6h 54m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:04DL 1324 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 15:27 → PBI 17:22DL 1458 7h 01m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396 3h 16m Newark EWR 13:07 → PBI 16:09UA 1797 7h 44m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065 7h 05m 94% 74%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:33 → CLT 08:00AA 1216 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 11:04 → PBI 12:58AA 2279 6h 25m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764 4h 29m 67% 48%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831 1h 09m Newark EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650 5h 46m 55% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON