tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:03 pm at Dulles); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 17:26, is the safest bet: 58% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1938 United Flight history → IAD 17:50 PHX 19:46 28% 7% 0.2% 82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 1h 40m Chicago ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602 7h 45m 86% 66%
UnitedDetails → IAD 16:23 → SFO 19:22UA 796 1h 40m San Francisco SFO 21:02 → PHX 23:02UA 1653 9h 39m 89% 62%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:26 → DTW 19:15DL 1787 1h 29m Detroit DTW 20:44 → PHX 21:48DL 2076 7h 22m 81% 58%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599 1h 20m Denver DEN 21:05 → PHX 22:13UA 1194 7h 32m 87% 56%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39DL 842 7h 53m 87% 55%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 1h 15m Houston IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432 7h 26m 81% 54%
AmericanDetails → IAD 19:16 → CLT 20:46AA 5447 · flown by PSA 1h 38m Charlotte CLT 22:24 → PHX 23:58AA 2613 7h 42m 89% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 46m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → PHX 21:34DL 757 6h 48m 57% 35%
AmericanDetails → IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50AA 1904 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:51 → PHX 23:33AA 1931 7h 02m 63% 32%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831 1h 08m Newark EWR 20:18 → PHX 22:23UA 2321 7h 41m 52% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON