Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3492 IAD 13:00 → RDU 14:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1322 IAD 18:54 → RDU 20:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3492 Republic	IAD 13:00	RDU 14:32	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 529 United Flight history →	IAD 08:21	RDU 09:34	12%	2%	0.6%	69%
UA 203 United	IAD 08:23	RDU 09:48	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3624 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 17:30	RDU 18:55	13%	5%	0.7%	71%
UA 2382 United Flight history →	IAD 22:25	RDU 23:44	16%	6%	0.8%	76%
UA 1322 United Flight history →	IAD 18:54	RDU 20:12	16%	7%	0.8%	79%
UA 4055 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:50	RDU 14:08	20%	10%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON