tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 1406 at 08:15, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1406 United Flight history → IAD 08:15 RSW 10:53 11% 4% 0.6% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 31m Chicago ORD 11:07 → RSW 15:12UA 2137 6h 57m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884 1h 41m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 6h 12m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396 2h 15m Newark EWR 12:06 → RSW 15:24UA 1810 6h 59m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 7h 27m 91% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 1h 57m Chicago ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618 7h 19m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Detroit DTW 08:35 → RSW 11:38DL 2001 5h 38m 86% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 08m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:04DL 1324 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 6h 23m 96% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON