tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Bush, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1789 United Flight history → IAD 08:25 SAT 10:59 15% 4% 0.4% 94%
UA 1869 United Flight history → IAD 17:45 SAT 20:22 22% 8% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 1h 00m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 5h 16m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 7h 13m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 54m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SAT 16:29UA 2844 9h 14m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:01 → SAT 13:11AA 4084 · flown by Envoy 7h 57m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252 1h 51m Chicago ORD 13:44 → SAT 16:46UA 1252 7h 15m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → DEN 10:10UA 792 3h 34m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 9h 40m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396 2h 29m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 7h 56m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 2h 36m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 8h 59m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:33 → CLT 08:00AA 1216 46m Charlotte CLT 08:46 → SAT 10:51AA 2889 5h 18m 50% 40%
AmericanDetails → IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50AA 1904 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599 5h 27m 69% 35%
AmericanDetails → IAD 15:13 → DFW 17:41AA 524 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → SAT 19:43AA 499 5h 30m 60% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON