Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today YX 3570 IAD 09:06 → SAV 11:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2244 IAD 09:00 → SAV 10:52 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3570 Republic	IAD 09:06	SAV 11:20	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 2244 United Flight history →	IAD 09:00	SAV 10:52	16%	4%	1.0%	92%
UA 3981 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:50	SAV 19:48	19%	10%	1.8%	81%
UA 6193 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:50	SAV 14:43	20%	5%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON