Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:47 pm at Dulles); 9 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 19:26, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 2075 United Flight history →	IAD 20:00	SFO 22:51	21%	9%	0.3%	52%
UA 367 United Flight history →	IAD 22:21	SFO 01:15	22%	5%	0.3%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 19:26 → ATL 21:26DL 2902	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	8h 10m	77%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50AA 1904	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446	8h 12m	65%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON