Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:49 pm at Dulles); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2025 at 17:24, 28%.

Nonstops today


UA 2025 United Flight history →	IAD 17:24	SJU 21:24	28%	9%	0.4%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217	3h 31m Houston	IAH 23:56 → SJU 05:29 +1UA 1497	11h 30m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861	7h 27m	80%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50AA 1904	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:47 → SJU 04:39 +1AA 514	9h 08m	60%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON