tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:35, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 432 Delta Flight history → IAD 07:15 SLC 09:54 10% 3% 0.6% 85%
UA 2410 United Flight history → IAD 17:50 SLC 20:46 25% 5% 0.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 07:00 → LAX 09:26UA 325 3h 29m Los Angeles LAX 12:55 → SLC 15:48UA 5371 · flown by SkyWest 10h 48m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 09m Chicago ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955 9h 07m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 9h 24m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:29 → JFK 13:55DL 5835 · flown by Republic 2h 32m New York JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 9h 26m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 10m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 1h 04m Houston IAH 09:43 → SLC 11:59UA 2242 7h 29m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015 3h 45m Seattle SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120 11h 40m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 3h 26m Houston IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 10h 00m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAD 19:26 → ATL 21:26DL 2902 59m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453 7h 00m 74% 57%
FrontierDetails → IAD 12:37 → DFW 15:14F9 4559 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:14 → SLC 18:08F9 3277 7h 31m 67% 49%
AmericanDetails → IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50AA 1904 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378 7h 05m 71% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON