tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5917 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → IAH 16:55 ASE 18:45 18% 8% 0.8% 80%
UA 5814 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → IAH 09:50 ASE 11:40 22% 8% 0.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 58m Denver DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46UA 5444 · flown by SkyWest 4h 31m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:40 → ASE 14:44UA 5771 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 3h 59m Denver DEN 15:07 → ASE 16:08UA 5773 · flown by SkyWest 7h 36m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:02UA 2643 3h 16m Denver DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 3h 42m Denver DEN 20:25 → ASE 21:26UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:00 → LAX 07:29UA 2110 2h 48m Los Angeles LAX 10:17 → ASE 13:38UA 4700 · flown by SkyWest 8h 38m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 3h 08m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 14:30 → ORD 17:22UA 699 2h 25m Chicago ORD 19:47 → ASE 22:00UA 5254 · flown by SkyWest 8h 30m 93% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON