Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1069 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1069 IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4106 IAH 20:02 → ATL 23:24 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1069 Delta Flight history →	IAH 05:40	ATL 08:50	6%	3%	0.8%	93%
UA 1030 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	ATL 10:39	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1315 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	ATL 10:04	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 644 Delta Flight history →	IAH 08:05	ATL 11:10	11%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 2304 Delta	IAH 08:10	ATL 11:11	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1572 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:38	ATL 17:54	13%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 1682 Delta Flight history →	IAH 12:09	ATL 15:21	14%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 1585 Delta Flight history →	IAH 09:41	ATL 12:48	14%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 2890 Delta Flight history →	IAH 16:51	ATL 20:13	16%	5%	0.7%	59%
DL 1223 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:34	ATL 21:54	17%	5%	0.7%	72%
UA 1211 United Flight history →	IAH 14:40	ATL 17:54	18%	6%	0.6%	49%
UA 2050 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	ATL 21:18	20%	6%	0.6%	46%
F9 1404 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:00	ATL 09:26	27%	12%	0.9%	68%
F9 4076 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 10:53	ATL 14:13	37%	14%	0.8%	67%
F9 4106 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 20:02	ATL 23:24	39%	16%	0.8%	56%
UA 4079 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 11:55	ATL 15:16	21%	7%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON