Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 6120 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:25	BHM 16:20	9%	9%	0.0%	91%
UA 4231 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:35	BHM 09:31	12%	6%	0.5%	88%
UA 4263 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:10	BHM 14:09	15%	8%	0.0%	85%
UA 4256 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:20	BHM 18:18	18%	9%	1.3%	82%
UA 4022 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 19:55	BHM 21:53	26%	5%	0.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON