Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1977 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 1977 IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1632 IAH 18:31 → BOS 23:24 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1977 United Flight history →	IAH 07:30	BOS 12:28	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2393 United Flight history →	IAH 09:50	BOS 14:48	14%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 521 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	BOS 23:30	22%	6%	0.7%	68%
UA 2161 United Flight history →	IAH 16:40	BOS 21:44	22%	8%	0.6%	69%
UA 1226 United	IAH 12:20	BOS 17:00	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1957 United Flight history →	IAH 12:30	BOS 17:34	23%	9%	0.6%	61%
B6 932 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 10:55	BOS 15:26	33%	10%	0.6%	60%
B6 1632 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:31	BOS 23:24	39%	17%	0.7%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON