tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:22 am at Houston)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616 3h 40m Chicago ORD 12:45 → BZN 15:13UA 623 10h 03m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:02UA 2643 3h 31m Denver DEN 11:33 → BZN 13:22UA 741 7h 52m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 1h 27m Denver DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248 5h 50m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 43m Minneapolis MSP 10:56 → BZN 12:28DL 2946 6h 58m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 36m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 01m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:00 → DFW 08:31AA 3002 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:47 → BZN 13:10AA 952 7h 10m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → LAX 08:57UA 2600 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 10h 04m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 10:31 → DEN 12:07UA 1409 3h 08m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 97% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 47m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 5h 23m 53% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON