Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:41 pm at Houston); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 2086 at 20:13, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 2086 United Flight history →	IAH 20:13	CMH 23:59	28%	13%	0.3%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:03 → CMH 23:40DL 1459	5h 49m	90%	70%
United Details →	IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10UA 1341	1h 31m San Francisco	SFO 21:41 → CMH 05:32 +1UA 1160	10h 27m	89%	65%
United Details →	IAH 17:09 → ORD 20:05UA 2135	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492	5h 50m	88%	65%
American Details →	IAH 17:26 → CLT 21:10AA 1920	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → CMH 23:56AA 3226	5h 30m	76%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 17:00 → DCA 21:16AA 5333 · flown by PSA	59m Washington	DCA 22:15 → CMH 23:50AA 5197 · flown by PSA	5h 50m	71%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON