Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:05 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 5459 at 20:16, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5459 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 20:16	COS 22:02	36%	9%	0.5%	79%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654	2h 55m Denver	DEN 23:09 → COS 23:59UA 4745 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	98%	75%
United Details →	IAH 14:30 → ORD 17:22UA 699	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → COS 21:55UA 4638 · flown by SkyWest	8h 25m	92%	72%
United Details →	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	2h 22m Denver	DEN 19:05 → COS 20:01UA 4793 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	97%	65%
United Details →	IAH 16:29 → DEN 17:56UA 470	3h 14m Denver	DEN 21:10 → COS 22:06UA 4650 · flown by SkyWest	6h 37m	97%	65%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → COS 21:07DL 971	7h 29m	93%	60%
United Details →	IAH 16:21 → DEN 18:23UA 484	2h 07m Denver	DEN 20:30 → COS 21:26UA 4744 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	89%	55%
American Details →	IAH 16:18 → DFW 17:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → COS 22:23AA 790	7h 05m	88%	55%
American Details →	IAH 14:04 → DFW 15:30AA 2512	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:27 → COS 18:34AA 6267 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	75%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654	56m Denver	DEN 21:10 → COS 22:06UA 4650 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	73%	49%
American Details →	IAH 18:53 → DFW 20:25AA 1929	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → COS 22:23AA 790	4h 30m	55%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON