Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2364 IAH 12:25 → CVG 15:57 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest UA 2069 IAH 19:43 → CVG 23:04 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 2364 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	CVG 15:57	23%	5%	0.5%	73%
UA 2850 United	IAH 12:30	CVG 15:50	24%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2069 United Flight history →	IAH 19:43	CVG 23:04	25%	6%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON