Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:17 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 1780 at 20:12, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1780 United Flight history →	IAH 20:12	DSM 22:35	26%	11%	0.4%	77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654	54m Denver	DEN 21:08 → DSM 00:03 +1UA 1213	5h 44m	76%	54%
American Details →	IAH 19:00 → DFW 20:14AA 2438	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58AA 1371	4h 58m	82%	44%
American Details →	IAH 17:26 → CLT 21:10AA 1920	1h 34m Charlotte	CLT 22:44 → DSM 00:09 +1AA 2241	6h 43m	83%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 18:53 → DFW 20:25AA 1929	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58AA 1371	5h 05m	70%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON