Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1797 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1797 IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 700 IAH 16:47 → EWR 21:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1797 United Flight history →	IAH 06:01	EWR 10:36	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	18%	6%	0.7%	76%
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:51	EWR 14:30	23%	5%	0.7%	79%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	25%	7%	0.7%	73%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:17	EWR 22:59	25%	8%	0.7%	66%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	26%	9%	0.7%	72%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:46	EWR 18:30	27%	9%	0.7%	74%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	31%	11%	0.7%	59%
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	33%	11%	0.7%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 06:10 → CLT 09:47AA 3162	48m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → EWR 12:22AA 1697	5h 12m	85%	68%
Delta Details →	IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644	52m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	5h 11m	79%	62%
United Details →	IAH 09:45 → MSY 11:01UA 575	47m New Orleans	MSY 11:48 → EWR 15:58UA 2101	5h 13m	76%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON