Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2261 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 2261 IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2180 IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2261 United Flight history →	IAH 07:35	FLL 11:22	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2234 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	FLL 13:47	13%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	IAH 10:21	FLL 14:08	15%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 1982 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	FLL 15:26	16%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 1706 United Flight history →	IAH 12:06	FLL 15:53	18%	5%	0.6%	64%
UA 462 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	FLL 18:07	19%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	FLL 20:22	20%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 1424 United	IAH 14:36	FLL 18:07	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
B6 2380 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 07:24	FLL 10:47	23%	6%	0.6%	30%
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	FLL 22:04	23%	6%	0.6%	77%
F9 1496 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 08:20	FLL 12:01	31%	9%	0.8%	62%
B6 2780 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 13:00	FLL 16:23	37%	14%	0.7%	35%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	39%	15%	0.7%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON