Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:56 pm at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: OO 5716 at 18:16, 42%.

Nonstops today


OO 5716 SkyWest	IAH 18:16	GRR 21:59	42%	23%	1.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 15:27 → DTW 19:15DL 1865	3h 58m Detroit	DTW 23:13 → GRR 00:14 +1DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	7h 47m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:10 → LGA 18:59DL 2088	2h 01m New York	LGA 21:00 → GRR 23:24DL 5659 · flown by Republic	8h 14m	93%	68%
United Details →	IAH 14:30 → ORD 17:22UA 699	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → GRR 22:09UA 2472	6h 39m	91%	67%
United Details →	IAH 17:09 → ORD 20:05UA 2135	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	5h 48m	87%	63%
United Details →	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	1h 12m Denver	DEN 17:55 → GRR 22:35UA 2121	6h 35m	83%	59%
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	6h 03m	86%	57%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210	6h 13m	91%	57%
American Details →	IAH 17:02 → ORD 20:24AA 4426 · flown by Republic	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	6h 34m	90%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 15:19 → DTW 18:56DL 1307	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → GRR 21:00DL 4081 · flown by SkyWest	4h 41m	65%	47%
American Details →	IAH 16:18 → DFW 17:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:07 → GRR 22:35AA 571	5h 17m	72%	36%
American Details →	IAH 17:26 → CLT 21:10AA 1920	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → GRR 00:20 +1AA 3113	5h 54m	70%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON