Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1549 IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1178 IAH 14:56 → IAD 19:14 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1549 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	IAD 11:28	9%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	16%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	18%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 2775 United Flight history →	IAH 20:20	IAD 00:31	18%	5%	0.7%	73%
UA 2366 United Flight history →	IAH 12:13	IAD 16:30	18%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 1178 United	IAH 14:56	IAD 19:14	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON