Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:06 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops today


B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:58	JFK 16:38	39%	16%	0.6%	50%
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	41%	16%	1.0%	45%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106	3h 43m Chicago	ORD 12:50 → JFK 16:28AA 4371 · flown by Republic	9h 15m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	9h 30m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	7h 24m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	10h 17m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 20m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:35 → MSP 17:26DL 2678	3h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	8h 27m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 11:32 → DTW 15:20DL 1043	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 17:59 → JFK 19:39DL 1316	7h 07m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 40m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 18:34 → ATL 21:54DL 1223	47m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	5h 16m	56%	46%
American Details →	IAH 09:27 → DFW 10:51AA 3193	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:46 → JFK 16:30AA 481	6h 03m	60%	44%
JetBlue Details →	IAH 10:56 → BOS 15:30B6 932	1h 39m Boston	BOS 17:09 → JFK 18:30B6 317	6h 34m	64%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON