Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1264 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 1264 IAH 07:20 → LAS 08:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1965 IAH 20:43 → LAS 21:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1264 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAS 08:35	9%	3%	0.5%	95%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	LAS 13:13	16%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	IAH 10:55	LAS 12:14	17%	5%	0.6%	88%
F9 1489 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 05:03	LAS 06:26	19%	8%	2.4%	82%
UA 1971 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LAS 15:37	22%	7%	0.6%	85%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	IAH 16:34	LAS 17:48	24%	8%	0.6%	82%
UA 1360 United Flight history →	IAH 20:05	LAS 21:23	25%	9%	0.7%	66%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	IAH 18:39	LAS 19:57	26%	8%	0.7%	79%
F9 4131 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:56	LAS 16:20	35%	14%	1.2%	74%
F9 1965 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 20:43	LAS 21:58	37%	14%	1.8%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON