Today: UA 417 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet today UA 417 IAH 06:16 → LAX 07:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1755 IAH 22:20 → LAX 00:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 417 United Flight history →	IAH 06:16	LAX 07:16	11%	2%	0.3%	97%
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:10	LAX 08:30	14%	3%	0.3%	94%
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	14%	3%	0.3%	91%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	18%	3%	0.4%	89%
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	20%	4%	0.3%	87%
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	23%	8%	0.6%	73%
UA 434 United Flight history →	IAH 22:00	LAX 23:39	23%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 1945 United Flight history →	IAH 14:58	LAX 16:40	25%	4%	0.4%	89%worse than usual
UA 2215 United Flight history →	IAH 22:03	LAX 23:38	25%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 1951 United Flight history →	IAH 14:54	LAX 16:27	25%	4%	0.4%	84%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	IAH 16:09	LAX 17:30	26%	5%	0.2%	76%
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	26%	6%	0.3%	82%
OO 4998 SkyWest	IAH 20:14	LAX 22:16	27%	11%	0.7%	no record
OO 4923 SkyWest	IAH 15:33	LAX 17:28	27%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 18:35	LAX 20:03	27%	8%	0.6%	82%
AA 5005 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 20:15	LAX 21:55	30%	10%	0.7%	80%
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:20	LAX 00:00	30%	13%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON