Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:30 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 14:38, is the safest bet: 52% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439	56m Seattle	SEA 18:17 → LGB 20:58AS 1310	8h 20m	67%	52%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON