Today: UA 2009 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet today UA 2009 IAH 08:02 → MCI 10:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1589 IAH 20:10 → MCI 22:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2009 United	IAH 08:02	MCI 10:19	10%	3%	0.3%	no record
UA 2266 United Flight history →	IAH 08:00	MCI 10:03	11%	3%	0.3%	86%
OO 5277 SkyWest	IAH 12:26	MCI 14:43	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1027 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	MCI 22:31	26%	8%	0.6%	55%
UA 1589 United Flight history →	IAH 20:10	MCI 22:10	30%	8%	0.6%	78%
UA 6152 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:05	MCI 14:15	13%	4%	1.5%	87%
UA 3987 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	MCI 16:47	14%	5%	0.4%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON