Today: UA 5758 at 11:55 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–35%.

Safest bet today UA 5758 IAH 11:55 → MEM 13:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1794 IAH 20:21 → MEM 22:06 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 5758 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 11:55	MEM 13:41	24%	9%	0.6%	86%
OO 565 SkyWest	IAH 12:14	MEM 13:56	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1794 United Flight history →	IAH 20:21	MEM 22:06	35%	14%	0.4%	74%
UA 6167 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:05	MEM 19:54	18%	6%	0.0%	82%
UA 6158 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:24	MEM 18:12	19%	5%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON