Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 5297 IAH 19:57 → MKE 22:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest UA 4774 IAH 19:50 → MKE 22:28 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5297 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 19:57	MKE 22:45	30%	9%	0.8%	62%
UA 4774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 19:50	MKE 22:28	35%	9%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
UA 6149 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:20	MKE 10:05	7%	3%	0.0%	93%
UA 6164 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	MKE 17:06	19%	4%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON