Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1050 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1050 IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1818 IAH 14:36 → MSP 17:22 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1050 Delta Flight history →	IAH 06:30	MSP 09:13	9%	4%	0.5%	88%
UA 2469 United Flight history →	IAH 08:00	MSP 10:53	13%	4%	0.4%	94%
DL 1554 Delta	IAH 10:39	MSP 13:25	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2656 Delta Flight history →	IAH 10:49	MSP 13:36	20%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 2617 Delta Flight history →	IAH 17:40	MSP 20:32	22%	8%	0.7%	74%
DL 1516 Delta	IAH 14:48	MSP 17:36	23%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 2678 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:35	MSP 17:26	24%	7%	0.7%	68%
UA 1872 United Flight history →	IAH 20:00	MSP 23:08	27%	8%	0.7%	77%
UA 2150 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	MSP 17:12	28%	8%	0.7%	70%
UA 1818 United	IAH 14:36	MSP 17:22	31%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON