Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:45 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:01, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	91%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	87%	78%
Alaska Details →	IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 20:47 → OAK 22:52AS 706	10h 14m	99%	73%
Frontier Details →	IAH 05:02 → LAS 06:25F9 1489	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 07:45 → OAK 09:31F9 2045	6h 29m	89%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON