Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1936 IAH 11:57 → OMA 14:22 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 1216 IAH 20:20 → OMA 22:45 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1936 United Flight history →	IAH 11:57	OMA 14:22	26%	7%	0.3%	84%worse than usual
UA 2846 United Flight history →	IAH 17:00	OMA 19:21	33%	10%	0.4%	72%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	IAH 20:20	OMA 22:45	36%	11%	0.2%	72%
UA 6188 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 11:55	OMA 14:11	11%	3%	0.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON