Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:58 pm at Houston); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1216 at 20:20, 42%.

Nonstops today


UA 1216 United Flight history →	IAH 20:20	OMA 22:45	42%	15%	0.4%	72%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654	51m Denver	DEN 21:05 → OMA 23:42UA 1787	5h 23m	63%	43%
American Details →	IAH 18:48 → ORD 22:01AA 1913	51m Chicago	ORD 22:52 → OMA 00:38 +1AA 3334	5h 50m	52%	25%
American Details →	IAH 18:53 → DFW 20:25AA 1929	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → OMA 23:22AA 2628	4h 29m	47%	23%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON