Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1044 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1044 IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 3322 IAH 14:30 → ORD 17:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1044 United Flight history →	IAH 05:04	ORD 07:59	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2616 United Flight history →	IAH 06:10	ORD 09:05	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1617 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	ORD 11:01	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	IAH 07:24	ORD 10:20	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 3106 American Flight history →	IAH 06:13	ORD 09:07	11%	4%	1.3%	89%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	ORD 12:29	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 4426 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IAH 17:02	ORD 20:24	15%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 2827 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	ORD 14:51	16%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 1752 United Flight history →	IAH 22:08	ORD 00:45	16%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 1691 United	IAH 11:57	ORD 14:43	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2458 United Flight history →	IAH 13:41	ORD 16:39	18%	5%	0.6%	68%
UA 787 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	ORD 23:15	18%	6%	0.6%	72%
AA 2928 American	IAH 09:05	ORD 11:48	18%	5%	2.1%	no record
UA 2135 United Flight history →	IAH 17:09	ORD 20:05	19%	6%	0.6%	68%
AA 1909 American Flight history →	IAH 11:26	ORD 14:17	19%	6%	1.3%	64%
UA 2197 United Flight history →	IAH 18:44	ORD 21:40	20%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 699 United Flight history →	IAH 14:30	ORD 17:22	20%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 1299 United	IAH 13:52	ORD 16:36	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2504 American Flight history →	IAH 11:37	ORD 14:17	24%	6%	1.3%	62%
AA 1913 American Flight history →	IAH 18:48	ORD 22:01	24%	9%	1.8%	47%
AA 1915 American Flight history →	IAH 13:36	ORD 16:35	25%	7%	1.3%	52%
F9 3136 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 21:58	ORD 00:49	25%	9%	0.8%	67%
UA 2775 United	IAH 15:30	ORD 18:04	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3322 American Flight history →	IAH 14:30	ORD 17:10	30%	8%	1.3%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON