tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:53 am at Houston)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: UA 740 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet today UA 740 IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 1421 IAH 18:19 → PDX 20:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time
Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 740 United Flight history → IAH 09:30 PDX 11:56 14% 4% 0.2% 86%
UA 1964 United Flight history → IAH 16:47 PDX 19:18 24% 4% 0.2% 82%
UA 1420 United Flight history → IAH 20:17 PDX 22:48 26% 8% 0.6% 79%
AS 1421 Alaska Flight history → IAH 18:19 PDX 20:50 31% 6% 0.5% 77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 1h 22m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 6h 39m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 35m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → IAH 18:59 → DFW 20:13AA 2438 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:36 → PDX 23:37AA 1636 6h 38m 76% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON