Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:08 pm at Houston); 10 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via LAX, leaving 20:15, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAH 20:15 → LAX 21:55AA 5005 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 23:42 → PHL 07:57 +1AA 2758	10h 42m	92%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 20:15 → LAX 21:55AA 5005 · flown by SkyWest	51m Los Angeles	LAX 22:46 → PHL 07:00 +1AA 3276	9h 45m	50%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON