Today: UA 1895 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet today UA 1895 IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 1703 IAH 17:38 → PHX 18:36 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1895 United Flight history →	IAH 09:40	PHX 10:34	14%	5%	0.3%	85%
MQ 3354 Envoy	IAH 07:01	PHX 07:44	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2614 United Flight history →	IAH 08:02	PHX 09:08	15%	4%	0.3%	94%
UA 1798 United Flight history →	IAH 14:25	PHX 15:26	17%	8%	0.2%	86%
UA 1238 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	PHX 15:10	18%	8%	0.2%	86%
AA 2710 American Flight history →	IAH 14:25	PHX 15:16	20%	9%	0.3%	80%
AA 2357 American Flight history →	IAH 14:36	PHX 15:26	20%	9%	0.3%	89%
AA 1937 American Flight history →	IAH 08:32	PHX 09:24	20%	6%	0.5%	75%
UA 2432 United Flight history →	IAH 21:40	PHX 22:25	22%	10%	0.7%	56%
UA 1478 United	IAH 16:56	PHX 17:58	23%	10%	0.2%	no record
UA 1507 United Flight history →	IAH 16:50	PHX 17:40	24%	9%	0.2%	71%
UA 2078 United Flight history →	IAH 19:53	PHX 20:42	25%	10%	0.7%	72%
UA 1259 United	IAH 18:23	PHX 19:13	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 640 American Flight history →	IAH 17:39	PHX 18:28	30%	9%	0.9%	76%
OO 6185 SkyWest	IAH 18:25	PHX 19:16	33%	12%	0.7%	no record
F9 1703 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 17:38	PHX 18:36	39%	19%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON