Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 497 at 20:20, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 497 IAH 20:20 → PNS 22:01 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 497 United Flight history →	IAH 20:20	PNS 22:01	32%	9%	1.2%	77%
UA 4869 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	PNS 16:06	16%	4%	1.3%	84%
UA 4293 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 08:00	PNS 09:43	18%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 6195 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:12	PNS 19:58	19%	9%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON