Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2196 IAH 12:03 → RDU 15:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 2498 IAH 18:08 → RDU 21:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2196 United Flight history →	IAH 12:03	RDU 15:55	18%	6%	0.7%	83%
F9 1742 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 09:40	RDU 13:36	23%	10%	1.9%	80%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	IAH 18:08	RDU 21:59	24%	8%	0.7%	77%
UA 6148 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 08:15	RDU 12:02	9%	1%	1.1%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON