Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:33 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: UA 6208 at 18:15, 35%.

Nonstops today


UA 6208 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 18:15	RIC 22:24	35%	24%	1.4%	83%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 18:53 → ATL 21:57DL 1651	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 23:08 → RIC 00:49 +1DL 1175	4h 56m	61%	49%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON