Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:32 pm at Houston); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 35–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 2095 United	IAH 18:23	RSW 21:45	35%	11%	1.0%	no record
UA 2778 United Flight history →	IAH 18:33	RSW 21:59	37%	12%	1.0%	78%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 16:18 → DFW 17:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:51 → RSW 22:38AA 1267	5h 20m	69%	38%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON